FDI dan Pertumbuhan Pasar Modal: Studi Empiris Negara-Negara ASEAN 2009-2023
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Abstract
Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) terhadap Pertumbuhan Pasar Modal di negara-negara ASEAN periode 2009–2023 dengan mengontrol variabel Keterbukaan Perdagangan, Ukuran Pasar dan Inflasi. Dua horizon waktu digunakan, yakni periode berjalan (tahun t) dan periode berikutnya (t+1), untuk menangkap efek langsung dan tertunda (lag effect). Urgensi penelitian ini terletak pada peran strategis FDI terhadap pasar modal dan ketidakkonsistenan hasil penelitian sebelumnya di kawasan ASEAN. Analisis dilakukan dengan data panel sepuluh negara menggunakan metode Fixed Effect Model (FEM) dengan robust standard errors (White cross-section period cluster) melalui EViews 12. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa FDI berpengaruh negatif terhadap pertumbuhan pasar modal tidak signifikan pada tahun berjalan namun negatif signifikan pada tahun berikutnya. Hal ini menunjukkan adanya lag effect dan dan dominasi orientasi FDI di sektor riil non-publik. Sebaliknya, keterbukaan perdagangan berpengaruh positif signifikan pada kedua periode, ukuran pasar berpengaruh positif signifikan pada tahun berjalan, sedangkan inflasi secara konsisten berpengaruh negatif signifikan. Temuan ini menegaskan pentingnya stabilitas makroekonomi dan integrasi perdagangan dalam memperkuat pasar modal ASEAN.
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